If the Court determines those tariffs were unlawful, importers may be entitled to recover tens of billions of dollars in duties. But—and this is the key point—refunds will not be automatic. Importers will need to act to protect their rights.
Throughout the trade community, companies are preparing for multiple scenarios, filing multiple types of claims and documenting everything. Though we don't know exactly how things will play out, we do know importers who prepare now will be far better positioned than those who wait for the Supreme Court to rule.
This article outlines what importers should be doing today.
The IEEPA tariffs have generated billions in duty collections since early 2025. Estimates vary, but analysts believe roughly $100 billion in duties could be refundable if the Court finds President Trump exceeded his statutory authority.
These tariffs apply to a wide range of countries and products. The case does not affect other major tariff programs such as:
Only the IEEPA-based tariffs are in question, but the financial exposure is enormous.
During oral arguments in November, Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about the breadth of authority the President claimed and Justice Amy Coney Barrett acknowledged that if refunds are owed, “it could be a mess.” Historically, she’s right. Large-scale tariff refunds often take years, involve significant administrative burden and require importers to file proper claims.
Treasury would only be obligated to refund duties to the plaintiffs in the case. Every other importer must establish their right to a refund.
Before taking any legal action, document your exposure. You should gather:
Because these tariffs were imposed rapidly and across many product categories, some importers don’t yet have precise totals. That will be a problem later.
Update your ACE data every few weeks until the Supreme Court issues its decision and especially after, when protests or court actions may hinge on accurate duty records.
Refund claims for customs duties are tied to a key event: the liquidation of your entry. Liquidation is when U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) finalizes the amount of duties owed on an import.
Here’s why liquidation matters:
In other words: some of your entries may already be liquidating. And many more will hit that point between December 2025 and late 2026.
Importers should be checking liquidation status at least monthly; weekly is better.
Filing protests under 19 U.S.C. §1514 is the traditional and most widely used path for seeking refunds of duties. Protests will play a central role if the Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs.
CBP cannot rule today on whether the IEEPA tariffs are lawful—that’s for the courts. But CBP can accept your protest and may choose to suspend it pending the Supreme Court’s decision. This is what CBP did during the 2021 protests over certain Section 301 tariffs.
Getting your protest in early may:
Some importers are filing one protest per importer-of-record number every few months to catch liquidated entries as they occur.
If the Court rules the tariffs invalid:
And remember: protests, when granted, include statutory interest, which can be substantial for high-volume importers.
Some importers are choosing to file lawsuits under the Court of International Trade’s residual jurisdiction (28 U.S.C. §1581(i)). This is more complex than filing protests, and legal experts hold differing opinions about how long this option will remain available.
Here’s the non-lawyer explanation.
Certain legal scholars argue that §1581(i) suits are only available while the Executive Orders imposing the tariffs remain in effect. After the Court rules, they say, importers must rely exclusively on protests.
Others argue that even after the decision, §1581(i) may still apply for:
Different companies have different risk tolerances. What matters is that importers understand the option and decide proactively—not after deadlines have passed.
Here is the most practical, consensus-driven guidance from across the trade community:
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